A better cycling demand model

John presented “A better cycling demand model” at the 2022 NZMUGS Conference in Christchurch, following research by ViaStrada and WSP.

Waka Kotahi NZ Transport Agency is developing forecasting methodologies for each of the quantitative measures in the new land transport benefits framework. As part of that exercise, a new model has been developed by ViaStrada and WSP to forecast cycling demand. This follows on from WSP's research on the Latent Demand for Walking and Cycling, published as Research Report 676.

The model is a significant improvement over the current Simplified Procedure 11. However, it was identified by ViaStrada, WSP, and Waka Kotahi’s independent reviewer Infometrics that it would benefit from additional “before-after” data to refine the coefficients so the model can be more readily used. A second iteration with a larger dataset produced even better results.

From a statistical point of view, and a theoretical perspective, this work has produced a robust and thorough investigation of the data that is available. The recommended model has an accuracy that is an order of magnitude better than the existing SP11 procedure. Based on the 22 sites considered in the modelling, a half-point improvement in Quality of Service score (using Auckland Transport methods) results in an increase of approximately 130 riders per day. For the 22 sites, the average change in ridership after implementation was a +81% increase in daily cycling numbers.