Estimating the adoption of electric vehicles: A case study of four Indian states

India’s rapid growth in petrol and diesel-powered vehicles has contributed to increasing greenhouse gas emissions, deteriorating urban air quality, and growing dependence on imported fuels. To address these challenges, governments at both the national and state levels have introduced a range of policies and incentives to encourage the uptake of electric vehicles (EVs) and support the national EV30@30 target, which aims for EVs to comprise 30% of all new vehicle registrations by 2030.

This research examines EV adoption trends in Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka, and Gujarat, using vehicle registration data from the Vahan Database and socio-economic data from the Reserve Bank of India. The study focuses on passenger vehicle categories, including two-wheelers, cars, auto-rickshaws (including e-rickshaws), and buses, and assesses historical adoption patterns between FY2012 and FY2021.

The analysis shows that EV adoption remained relatively low across all four states during the study period. Average annual EV shares were below 2% in Delhi, below 1% in Uttar Pradesh, and below 0.5% in Karnataka and Gujarat. While electric three-wheelers account for a significant proportion of EV registrations in Delhi and Uttar Pradesh, electric two-wheelers dominate the EV market in Karnataka and Gujarat.

Using an econometric forecasting model based on the relationship between vehicle registrations and economic growth, the study estimates future vehicle registrations and the number of EVs required to achieve a 30% share of new passenger vehicle registrations by FY2030-2031. The results indicate that approximately 0.31 million EVs in Delhi, 1.52 million EVs in Uttar Pradesh, 0.88 million EVs in Karnataka, and 0.80 million EVs in Gujarat would need to be registered in a single year to meet the EV30@30 target.

The findings highlight a substantial gap between current EV adoption levels and the growth required to achieve national and state ambitions. The study identifies several barriers to adoption, including high upfront vehicle costs, battery replacement costs, insufficient charging infrastructure, and consumer concerns regarding vehicle range and charging convenience. Addressing these challenges will require not only policy incentives but also the development of a comprehensive EV ecosystem encompassing charging infrastructure, energy supply, maintenance services, battery recycling, and consumer support.