Predicting e-bike sales in NZ

In July 2017, the NZ Transport Agency published Research Report 621 (Regulations and safety for electric bicycles and other low-powered vehicles). As part of that, we predicted e-bike sales in New Zealand based on what had been happening up until 2016 in New Zealand and Europe. Four future scenarios were used for our predictions (low to extreme growth) and with the 2019 data now available from Stats NZ (warning - the extraction of data is complex!), we thought we would have a look how actual data track against our predictions. And what do you know? The actual data pretty much follow the extreme growth scenario. How interesting! 

some graph

The above graph shows actual data overlaid onto Figure 4.6 from the 2017 research report. There are a bunch of caveats. Customs NZ changed the classification codes in 2017 (see codes 8711.60 and 8711.90 of the tariff document) and it's somewhat murky what exactly gets counted. We've made a few attempts of getting that clarified but have never been successful. Hence the data above are for the import category of e-motorcycles, e-mopeds and e-bikes. We don't think that there are very many e-motorcycles or e-mopeds, so the vast majority are expected to be e-bikes.