Developing a Model for the Safety Impacts of Mode Shift

Where presented / published:

2025 Australian Road Safety Conference, Perth, Australia, Oct 2025

This NZTA research sought to determine the actual and potential safety impacts of achieving mode shift from private motorised vehicles to public transport, active modes and micro-mobility, in conjunction with making changes to the overall volume of travel by all modes. It aimed to identify the individual and collective safety profiles of different travel modes, and the potential safety outcomes for different demographic groups that could arise from mode shift away from private motorised vehicles in NZ. The objectives were to: 

1. identify and examine NZ and relevant international literature, especially in relation to countries whose transport systems are comparable to NZ’s, to summarise what is known about the overall safety impacts of mode shift away from private motorised vehicles to whole journeys involving public transport, active travel or micro-mobility

2. determine the personal and collective safety impacts of different non-private vehicle travel modes across whole journeys and for different demographic groups in NZ

3. develop a model to enable mode-shift ‘scenario testing’ to calculate the potential road-safety outcomes of different levels and configurations of mode shift in NZ, at a national level and for a range of urban areas and demographics. 

This poster summarises the work undertaken and presents the final scenario model tool developed.